Telework to Accelerate Federal Office Shift: Study
It is no secret that telework altered the footprint of the federal workforce, with many federal workers able to do their jobs from anywhere, and many decamping from the National Capital Region, or at least moving further out from the city.
Now, a new study is trying to simulate the long-term impact of telework on the National Capital Region, including its impact on real estate.
After all, the General Services Administration (GSA) holds about 47 million square feet of owned space and 44 million square feet of leased space in the region. Overall, 57 percent of federal leases are due to expire in the next five years.
The study, from the National Capital Planning Commission (NCPC) and the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG), looked at the impact of various telework scenarios, including maximum telework of eight to ten days over a two-week period, four to six days per two weeks of telework, and minimum telework of one to two days per two weeks. It studied factors including real estate, demographics, and public transportation and commuting patterns.
“Before the pandemic, we already acknowledged that there were a lot of federal buildings that were underutilized. Federal telework just helps us accelerate the opportunities to either use our space better when federal agencies may be consolidating in the future,” NCPC Senior Urban Planner Angela Dupont told Federal News Network.
The study found that while telework accelerate the federal government’s reduction of its real estate footprint, it will have the biggest impact on the District of Columbia.
“Any changes in federal telework policy will have a significant impact on Washington, given that it has a large component of telework-eligible jobs,” the report stated.
Maryland
The study found that Prince George’s County, Maryland, could face moderate impact with 46 percent of its federal office leases nearing termination. However, in-person presence for labs in the county could act as a “crucial buffer against sharp reductions.”
Montgomery County, Maryland is in better shape with just 15 percent of federal leases nearing expiration. The county benefits from various federal entities with extensive lab spaces including the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS). It faces minimal impact from telework.
Virginia
Fairfax County, Virginia faces moderate impact with 27 percent of federal leases expiring within the next five years. That could be offset by Fairfax’s contingent of national security and defense agencies.
Arlington County has 25 percent of commercial federal leases approaching their expiration dates. However, the report says that Arlington’s “robust presence of security/defense-related agencies may potentially serve as a mitigating factor against substantial declines in federal office occupancy rates.”
Alexandria faces 94 percent of federal office spaces nearing lease termination. While Alexandria does not have key security agencies, the high rate is “most likely representing one agency, the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, so impact could remain low.”
Loudon, Prince William, and Fairfax City would see low exposure.
Other Impacts
Besides economic impact, the report said increased telework will change commuting patterns. If workers live further outside the National Capital Region, Metro ridership could fall, potentially impacting the region’s transportation infrastructure and service.
It is also a mixed bag on sustainability. While office building energy use would decline, that may be offset by additional at-home energy costs and additional non-work trips.
